R.L. Vander Wal, M.M. Nikiawete, J.H. Heim II
Penn State University,
United States
Keywords: critical minerals, market sectors, electric vehicles, global sources, economics
Summary:
Updated values are presented for REE market sector allocations. While percentage allocations change minimally, absolute tonnage, reflecting demand exhibit marked increases, most notably for catalysts, magnets and phosphors. Relative to global REE product sectors, the U.S. has a disproportionate share of catalysts while lacking significant battery or magnet production by USGS reports. Growth in mature market sectors is driven by the general economy, thus accounting for the demand fluctuations for cerium, lanthanum, and yttrium. Oppositely growth in newer market sectors is driven by policy, economic incentives and technology. Currently EV traction motors and wind turbine generators are driving the high (8-10%) growth in the permanent magnet sector. These areas are identified as promising opportunities for manufacturing industries using the REO concentrate from potential domestic resources. Usage does not reflect economic value. A prime example are catalysts versus magnets. Catalysts (automotive and FCC) account for ~ 20% of TREO use while magnets, at ~ 29% TREO account for well over 2/3 of the REE overall product value. The economic impact of REEs is vast, accounting for $274 billion in the U.S. and up to a trillion $US globally. But with the U.S. 100% reliant upon REE imports, the supply chain value captured domestically will continue to decrease as China and other countries build up their own integrated supply chains, based on their domestic resources. The economic impact of REE end products and technologies in the U.S. is large, accounting for over $274 billion in economic activity and an estimated 100,000 jobs, notwithstanding that refined REEs are not produced in the U.S.; instead, the U.S. is totally import reliant. If domestic resources were available, the net imported value of TREOs could be captured domestically along with mining and processing jobs. Additionally, a domestic and stable supply would provide the foundation for a vast array of manufacturing technologies – magnifying several-fold the refined REE net value. This talk further reviews the origin for the high critical mineral demand and response of the auto industry. Those critical minerals key for electrification and battery electric vehicles in particular include lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, cobalt and neodymium. Against this demand are the supply limitations, along with questionable scalability going forward despite enthusiastic projections. The growing crisis is put into context by considering full accounting of CO2 generation and energy generation in total.